Aluminom bụ ọla nwere nnukwu ike oriri yana ikuku carbon dị elu.N'okpuru ndabere nke nkwenye zuru ụwa ọnụ ugbu a na mbelata carbon, na n'okpuru mgbochi nke iwu ụlọ "carbon abụọ" na "ike oriri okpukpu abụọ" atumatu, ụlọ ọrụ aluminum electrolytic ga-eche ihu mgbanwe dị ukwuu.Anyị ga-anọgide na-egwu ala n'ime ụlọ ọrụ aluminum electrolytic, site na amụma na ụlọ ọrụ, site na macro ruo micro, site na ọkọnọ na-achọ, iji chọpụta mgbanwe ndị nwere ike ịdị na njikọ nke ọ bụla, na iji nyochaa mmetụta ha nwere ike ime na ọnụahịa aluminum n'ọdịnihu.
Okpomọkụ dị elu na-agbasa, ma ọnụahịa aluminom chere ihu "belata ahụ ọkụ"
Okpomọkụ na-ekpo ọkụ n'August kpochapụrụ ụwa, na ọtụtụ akụkụ nke Eurasia zutere oke ihu igwe dị elu, ike ọkụ mpaghara ahụ nọkwa n'oké nrụgide.N'ime ha, ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik amụbawo n'ọtụtụ akụkụ nke Europe, nke mere ka mbelata mmepụta ọzọ na ụlọ ọrụ aluminum electrolytic mpaghara.N'otu oge ahụ, oke okpomọkụ na-emetụta mpaghara ndịda ọdịda anyanwụ nke mba ahụ, na mbelata mmepụta ihe dị ukwuu mere na mpaghara Sichuan.N'okpuru nnyonye anya nke akụkụ ọkọnọ, ọnụ ahịa aluminom si na gburugburu 17,000 yuan / ton na etiti Julaị ruo n'elu 19,000 yuan / ton na mbubreyo August.Ka ọ dị ugbu a, ihu igwe na-ekpo ọkụ amalitela ịda mbà ma na-atụ anya na Fed ga-ebuli ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa nke ọma.Ọnụ ego aluminom ọ na-eche ihu "ọkụ"?
Anyị kwenyere na mmetụta macro nke dị mkpirikpi bụ bearish, na ịrị elu nke ndenye dollar US ebelatawo ngwaahịa, nke tinyeworo nrụgide na ọnụ ahịa aluminum.Ma n'ime oge ọkara, nsogbu ụkọ ike na Europe ga-adị ogologo oge, ọnụ ọgụgụ nke mbelata nke mmepụta aluminum electrolytic ga-abawanyewanye, na nri ala na nke ikpeazụ ga-adabere na mbubata.Site na ọnụ ahịa ike dị ala na China, mbupụ nke aluminom nwere uru dị ala, nke na-eme ka mbupụ anụ ụlọ na nkeji nke atọ na nke anọ nwere ike ịnọgide na-enwe ezi omume.N'oge na-adịghị anya nke oriri ọdịnala nke ụlọ, oriri ọnụ na-egosi nkwụsi ike doro anya, na nchịkọta nke nchekwa na etiti etiti na njikọ ala dị oke.Mgbe oke okpomọkụ ahụ daalata, a na-atụ anya na ihe owuwu nke ala ga-amaliteghachi ngwa ngwa, na-ebute mbelata ngwa ahịa.Ọganihu na-aga n'ihu nke isi ihe na-eme ka Shanghai Aluminom dịkwuo ike.Ọ bụrụ na mmetụta nnukwu ahụ na-akawanye mma, ọ ga-enwe mmetụta mgbagha siri ike.Mgbe "Golden Nine Silver Ten" na-eri oge kacha elu, adịghị ike nke ọchịchọ na nrụgide ọkọnọ a ma ama, ọnụahịa aluminom ga-enwekwa nrụgide dị ukwuu nke mgbazi.
Nkwado ọnụ ahịa doro anya, nrụgide ndọghachi azụ adịghị ike karịa na June
Na June, Federal Reserve mara ọkwa ịkwalite ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa site na isi ihe ndabere 75.Mgbe ọkwa ahụ gasịrị, ahịa ahụ malitere ịzụ ahịa nkwụghachi ụgwọ, na-ebute ọdịda kachasị ukwuu na ọnụahịa aluminom na-aga n'ihu n'afọ a.Ọnụahịa ahụ dara site na gburugburu 21,000 yuan/ton n'etiti June ruo 17,000 yuan n'etiti July./t nso.Ụjọ nke ọchịchọ ọdịnihu ga-ada ada, jikọtara ya na nchegbu banyere ịda mbà n'obi ụlọ, so na ọdịda ikpeazụ.
Mgbe okwu hawkish nke izu gara aga site n'aka onye isi oche Federal Reserve, ahịa ahụ na-erekwa atụmanya nke 75 ndabere ọnụego ọmụrụ nwa, ọnụ ahịa aluminom dara ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ 1,000 yuan n'ime ụbọchị atọ, ọzọ na-eche nnukwu nrụgide maka mgbazi.Anyị kwenyere na nrụgide nke mgbazi a ga-adịwanye ike karịa nke June: n'otu aka ahụ, uru nke ụlọ ọrụ aluminom electrolytic na June dị elu karịa 3,000 yuan / ton, ma ọ bụ site n'echiche nke ihe ọkụkụ aluminom. n'onwe ya, ma ọ bụ ụlọ ọrụ dị elu na ọnọdụ nke ebelata ọchịchọ.Site n'echiche nke uru dị elu na-adịghị adịgide adịgide, ụlọ ọrụ aluminom na-eche ihe ize ndụ nke ịdaba uru.Uru dị elu nke ukwuu, na-abawanye ọdịda, na uru ụlọ ọrụ dị ugbu a adaala gburugburu 400 yuan / ton, ya mere enwere ohere maka ịga n'ihu na-akpọghachi.N'aka nke ọzọ, a na-akwado ọnụ ahịa aluminom electrolytic ugbu a.Ọnụ ego nke aluminum electrolytic na etiti June dị gburugburu 18,100 yuan / ton, ọnụ ahịa ya ka dịkwa gburugburu 17,900 yuan / ton na njedebe nke August, na obere mgbanwe.Ma n'ime ogologo oge, enwere ohere dị ntakịrị maka alumina, anodes pre-baked na ọkụ eletrik ka ọ daa, nke na-eme ka ọnụ ahịa mmepụta nke aluminom electrolytic dị elu ruo ogologo oge, na-akwado nkwado maka ọnụahịa aluminum ugbu a. .
Ọnụ ahịa ike mba ofesi dị elu, na mbelata mmepụta ga-agbasawanye n'ihu
Ọnụ ego ike nke mba ofesi ka dị elu, na mbelata mmepụta ga-aga n'ihu na-abawanye.Site na nyocha nke usoro ike dị na Europe na United States, enwere ike ịhụ na ume ọhụrụ, gas, coal, ike nuklia na ike ndị ọzọ na-akpata oke.N'adịghị ka United States, Europe na-adabere karịa na mbubata maka gas na coal ya.Na 2021, oriri gas sitere na Europe ga-abụ ihe dị ka ijeri cubic 480, na ihe fọrọ nke nta ka ọ bụrụ 40% nke oriri gas sitere na Russia.N'afọ 2022, esemokwu dị n'etiti Russia na Ukraine butere nkwụsị nke ikuku gas na Russia, nke mere ka ọnụ ahịa gas na-aga n'ihu na Europe, na Europe aghaghị ịchọ ụzọ ọzọ maka ike Russia gburugburu ụwa, bụ nke kpaliri n'ụzọ doro anya. elu ụwa eke gas ahịa.N'ịbụ ndị ọnụ ahịa ume dị elu na-emetụta, ihe ọkụkụ abụọ aluminom nke North America ebelatala mmepụta, na ọnụ ọgụgụ nke 304,000 tọn mbelata mmepụta.Agaghị ewepụ ohere nke mbelata mmepụta ọzọ n'oge ikpeazụ.
Tụkwasị na nke ahụ, oke okpomọkụ na oké ọkọchị nke afọ a ebutewokwa nnukwu mbibi n'usoro ike nke Europe.Ọkwa mmiri nke ọtụtụ osimiri ndị dị na Europe adalatala nke ukwuu, bụ́ nke metụtakwara arụpụta ọrụ ike ike mmiri.Tụkwasị na nke ahụ, enweghị mmiri na-emetụtakwa arụmọrụ dị jụụ nke ụlọ ọrụ nuklia, na ikuku na-ekpo ọkụ na-ebelatakwa ike ikuku, na-eme ka ọ na-esiri ike maka ike nuklia na ikuku ikuku na-arụ ọrụ.Nke a na-agbasawanye oghere ọkụ eletrik na Europe, nke butere ozugbo na mmechi nke ọtụtụ ụlọ ọrụ na-arụ ọrụ ike.N'ịtụle fragility nke ugbu a European ike Ọdịdị, anyị kwenyere na ọnụ ọgụgụ nke European electrolytic aluminum mmepụta Mbelata ga-amụbawanye n'afọ a.
N'ileghachi anya na mgbanwe nke ikike mmepụta na Europe, ebe ọ bụ na nsogbu ego na 2008, mbelata mmepụta ihe na Europe na-ewepu Russia agafeela 1.5 nde tọn (ewezuga mbelata mmepụta na nsogbu ike 2021).Enwere ọtụtụ ihe maka mbelata mmepụta, ma na nyocha ikpeazụ ọ bụ ihe na-efu: dịka ọmụmaatụ, mgbe ntiwapụ nke nsogbu ego na 2008 gasịrị, ọnụahịa nke aluminum electrolytic dị na Europe dara n'okpuru ọnụ ahịa ego, nke kpalitere a. nnukwu mmepụta mbelata na European electrolytic aluminum osisi;Nchọpụta ego mgbochi ego nke ọkụ eletrik mere na United Kingdom na mpaghara ndị ọzọ, nke mere ka ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik dịkwuo elu na mbelata mmepụta nke osisi aluminom mpaghara.Gọọmentị UK na-ezube ịmalite na 2013, na-achọ ka ndị na-emepụta ọkụ na-akwụ ụgwọ ego maka ikuku carbon.Usoro ndị a abawanyela ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik na Europe, na-ebute ọtụtụ n'ime electrolyticaluminom ndị na-eweta profaịlụ nke kwụsịrị mmepụta n'oge mmalite ma maliteghachighị mmepụta.
Ebe ọ bụ na nsogbu ike malitere na Europe n'afọ gara aga, ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik dị n'ógbè ahụ ka dị elu.N'okpuru mmetụta nke esemokwu Ukraine-Russia na oke ihu igwe, ọnụahịa nke gas na ọkụ eletrik na Europe erutela ihe ndekọ dị elu.Ọ bụrụ na a na-agbakọ ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik nke mpaghara na euro 650 kwa MWh, elekere ọkụ eletrik nke ọ bụla bụ RMB 4.5 / kW·h.Oriri ike kwa ton nke mmepụta aluminum electrolytic na Europe bụ ihe dịka 15,500 kWh.Dị ka ngụkọ a si dị, ọnụ ahịa mmepụta kwa ton nke aluminom dị nso 70,000 yuan kwa ton.Osisi aluminom na-enweghị ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik ogologo oge enweghị ike ị nweta ya ma ọlị, na egwu nke mbelata mmepụta aluminum electrolytic na-aga n'ihu na-abawanye.Kemgbe 2021, ikike mmepụta aluminom electrolytic na Europe belatara site na nde 1.326.Anyị na-eme atụmatụ na mgbe ịbanye n'oge mgbụsị akwụkwọ, enweghi ike idozi nsogbu ụkọ ike na Europe nke ọma, na e nwere ihe ize ndụ nke mbelata ọzọ na mmepụta aluminum electrolytic.tọn ma ọ bụ karịa.N'iburu n'uche na ngbanwe dị oke ogbenye nke ọkọnọ na Europe, ọ ga-esi ike ịgbake ruo ogologo oge mgbe mbelata mmepụta.
Àgwà ike ike pụtara ìhè, na mbupụ nwere uru ọnụ
Ahịa ahụ n'ozuzu kwenyere na ọla ndị na-abụghị ndị na-emepụta ihe nwere àgwà ego siri ike na mgbakwunye na àgwà ngwaahịa.Anyị kwenyere na aluminom dị iche na ọla ndị ọzọ ma nwee ike ike ike, nke ahịa na-elegharakarị anya.Ọ na-ewe 13,500 kW h iji mepụta otu ton nke aluminom electrolytic, nke na-eri ọkụ eletrik kacha elu kwa ton n'etiti ọla niile na-abụghị nke ígwè.Tụkwasị na nke ahụ, ọkụ eletrik ya bụ ihe dịka 34% -40% nke ọnụ ahịa zuru ezu, ya mere a na-akpọkwa ya "ọkụ eletrik siri ike".1 kWh nke ọkụ eletrik kwesịrị iri ihe dị ka gram 400 nke coal ọkọlọtọ na nkezi, na mmepụta nke 1 ton nke aluminom electrolytic kwesịrị iri nkezi nke 5-5.5 tọn ọkụ ọkụ.Ọnụ ego nke coal na ọkụ eletrik na-akwụ ụgwọ maka ihe dị ka 70-75% nke ọnụ ahịa ọkụ eletrik.Tupu a chịkwaghị ọnụ ahịa, ọnụ ahịa coal n'ọdịnihu na ọnụ ahịa aluminom Shanghai gosipụtara mmekọrịta dị elu.
Ka ọ dị ugbu a, n'ihi ọkọnọ kwụsiri ike na ụkpụrụ iwu, ọnụ ahịa coal ụlọ nwere nnukwu ọnụ ahịa dị iche na ọnụ ahịa ebe oriri na mba ofesi.Ọnụ ego FOB nke 6,000 kcal NAR thermal coal na Newcastle, Australia bụ US $ 438.4 / ton, FOB price nke thermal coal na Puerto Bolivar, Colombia bụ US $ 360 / ton, na ọnụahịa nke ikpo ọkụ ọkụ na ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri Qinhuangdao bụ US $ 190.54 / ton. , FOB price nke thermal coal na Russian Baltic ọdụ ụgbọ mmiri (Baltic) bụ 110 US dollar / ton, na FOB price nke 6000 kcal NAR thermal coal na Far East (Vostochny) bụ 158.5 US dollar / ton.Ebe ndị dị ọnụ ala na-abụghị mpaghara dị elu nke ukwuu karịa ụlọ.Ọnụ ahịa gas dị na Europe na United States dị elu karịa ọnụ ahịa ike ọkụ.Ya mere, aluminom electrolytic ụlọ nwere uru ike dị ike, nke ga-anọgide na-abụ nke a ma ama n'ihe gbasara ọnụ ahịa ike zuru ụwa ọnụ ugbu a.
N'ihi nnukwu ọdịiche dị na tarifụ mbupụ maka ngwaahịa aluminom dị iche iche na China, ọnụ ahịa ọnụ ahịa nke ingots aluminom abụghị ihe doro anya na usoro mbupụ, ma ọ na-egosipụta na usoro aluminom na-esote.N'ihe gbasara data akọwapụtara, China wepụrụ tọn 652,100 nke ngwaahịa aluminom na aluminom na-arụghị ọrụ na Julaị 2022, mmụba n'afọ n'afọ nke 39.1%;Mkpokọta mbupụ site na Jenụwarị ruo Julaị bụ nde tọn 4.1606, mmụba nke afọ n'afọ nke 34.9%.Na enweghị mgbanwe dị ịrịba ama na ọchịchọ nke mba ofesi, a na-atụ anya na ọganihu mbupụ ga-adị elu.
Oriri bụ ntakịrị resilient, ọla edo, ọlaọcha itoolu na iri nwere ike ịtụ anya
Site na Julaị ruo Ọgọst afọ a, oriri ọdịnala na-apụ n'oge na-ezute oke ihu igwe.Sichuan, Chongqing, Anhui, Jiangsu na mpaghara ndị ọzọ enwetala ikike ikike na mmepụta ihe, na-akpata mmechi nke ụlọ ọrụ n'ọtụtụ ebe, mana oriri adịghị njọ site na data ahụ.Nke mbụ, n'ihe gbasara ọnụego ọrụ nke ụlọ ọrụ nhazi ala, ọ bụ 66.5% na mbido July na 65.4% na njedebe nke August, mbelata nke pasent 1.1.Ọnụego ọrụ ahụ dara site na pasentị 3.6 n'otu oge ahụ n'afọ gara aga.Site n'echiche nke ọkwa ngwa ahịa, naanị 4,000 tọn ingots aluminum ka echekwara na August dum, na tọn 52,000 ka enweghị nchekwa na July-August.N'August, ihe nchekwa aluminom nke a na-akwakọba bụ tọn 2,600, na site na July ruo August, nchekwa aluminom nke aluminom bụ tọn 11,300.Ya mere, site na July ruo August, a na-edobe ọnọdụ nke mkpochapụ n'ozuzu ya, na naanị 6,600 ton ka a na-achịkọta n'August, nke na-egosi na oriri ugbu a ka nwere ike ike.Site na njedebe njedebe, a na-echekwa ọganihu nke ụgbọ ala ike ọhụrụ na ikuku na ike anyanwụ, na ịdọrọ na oriri aluminom ga-abụ n'ime afọ.Usoro n'ozuzu ala nke ala ụlọ agbanwebeghị.Mbelata nke ihu igwe dị elu ga-enyere ebe a na-ewu ụlọ aka ịmaliteghachi ọrụ, na mmalite nke ijeri 200 "ụlọ a kwadoro" ego enyemaka mba ga-enyekwara aka melite njikọ mmecha.Ya mere, anyị kwenyere na oge oriri "Golden Nine Silver Ten" ka nwere ike ịtụ anya.
Oge nzipu: Sep-09-2022